Two Paths: Which will we choose?
Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer released an article which outlines the future of energy. He proposes that there are two paths that we can take. He titles one "Scramble" which is similar to how nations react to resource scarcity as described by Resource Wars by Michael Klare. This is the scenario in which nations will go to war over the resources remaining in the world. (See how the video game "Fuel of War" depicts the "Scramble" scenario in this blog).
The second path he calls "Blueprints" which is similar to Richard Heinberg's scenario "Powerdown: The path of self-limitation, cooperation, and sharing" as described in his book PowerDown
van Der Veer states the following opinion on which path that Shell, America, and the world should take:
"Shell traditionally uses its scenarios to prepare for the future without expressing a preference for one over another. But, faced with the need to manage climate risk for our investors and our descendants, we believe the Blueprints outcomes provide the best balance between economy, energy, and environment."I believe that pretty much everyone would agree that going to war over resources is not a path that we should embark (or continue) on, and that we should look towards a future filled with cooperation and sustainability.
Peak Oil
The most powerful part of van der Veer's article was the following paragraph which is practically an admission to the existence and tremendous importance of peak oil.
"Regardless of which route we choose, the world’s current predicament limits our room to maneuver. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to rising population and economic development. After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand." (Emphasis added)These are extremely strong words for a CEO of a company that depends on selling these "easily accessible supplies of oil and gas". It would be similar to Starbucks saying "After 2015, cheap supplies of coffee probably will no longer keep up with demand". Simply stated, this is something that would not be said unless the company was truly concerned about the issue.
This marks the first time that anyone from a major energy company has openly admitted that peak oil will happen before 2020. Although there has been a strong, yet mostly underground movement for peak oil, the energy industry has been reluctant to admit that peak oil would even be a problem... until now.
My Thoughts
I am truly amazed that someone has finally stepped up to the plate and recognized the need for a drastic change. Jeroen van der Veer admits to "peak oil" without explicitly saying those words and recognizes the need for drastic change to ensure that we do not go down the path of Scramble, plunging ourselves into a never-ending resource war until there is only the "Last Man is Standing".
I must congratulate him for making such a bold statement to the public in light of what shareholders may think. However, as he stated, climate risk must be managed by balancing economy, energy, and environment. It is in the shareholder's and our descendant's best interest that we look at energy and greenhouse gas emissions and work to find a sustainable solution.
I can only hope that politicians and other leaders of corporations will follow Jeroen van der Veer's footsteps and confront reality. We cannot address the problem if we are not aware of . Once we have admitted that we have a problem, we can begin to work on fixing it.
Related Links:
- The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
- James Howard Kunstler
- Resource Wars - Michael Klare
- The Party's Over: Oil, War And The Fate Of Industrial Societies
- Richard Heinberg
Review - PowerDown - Richard Heinberg
Recommended Movies:
1 comment:
The CEO's admission to peak oil is a PERFECT and AMAZING marketing strategy. Looking at this in terms of straight business, this will only increase the price he can charge for this item as it creates a new price leadership affect across the entire market. If other oil companies work in collusion to the affect of this, they can charge whatever they please and work wonders on a relatively inelastic demand market to make BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars on this....Whether or not Peak oil is an actual problem, this is a huge gain for the oil industry...
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