The Oil Drum and Peak Oil
The Oil Drum has is a great resource for information related to peak oil and oil production in the world. They have a "Peak Oil" update and the last one was updated in December 2007. It looks at the Energy Information Administration data to plot actual observed production and compares that to the numerous models that have been proposed.
For the figures and data, see The Oil Drum: Peak Oil Update Decmeber 2007. Also, the Peak Oil Update is available in PDF format.
In short, it looks like we have reached the peak for Crude/Condensate (conventional oil), Natural Gas Liquids, and Total Liquids. Convention oil hit a peak in May 2005 and based on the production data from countries around the world, it looks like it will be the "real peak" and conventional oil will never be produced in the same quantities as before.
The peak that we have seen in the past 2-3 years isn't quite the "peak and sharp decline" that many people had predicted, but more of an extended plateau. Regardless of the shape, there is strong evidence which includes the production and price of oil, that we cannot produce any more oil.
Forecasts
What is most alarming, is how off the predictions that CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) and IEA (International Energy Agency) are from the actual observed production. They have been proven to be wrong time and time again, yet the media readily uses them as "reliable" sources (See The Oil Drum's "Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock" article for more information).
I think that every person needs to be extremely skeptical of forecasts and press releases by companies and the government on the issue of peak oil. It is one issue that they don't want to touch with a 10-foot pole and if they do they will an unrealistic optimistic view of it.
My Thoughts
The Oil Drum has the most thorough analysis of peak oil that I have found. The analysis and data strongly indicates that we have already passed peak oil and that we are "on the way down". It is disconcerting that the media has shown little if any coverage on the topic. However, whether or not the media likes it, peak oil will happen and it is up to the people to become aware of the situation and inform themselves.
What should we do to prepare ourselves for peak oil? I think that people in Western countries will have an extreme advantage over those in developing countries. We have so much more wealth and we will be able to buy ourselves (at least temporarily) out of the peak oil conditions. However, as crude production continues to decline, the price of goods and the luxuries that we previously have been able to afford will be beyond our means.
In my opinion, the best way to prepare for peak oil is to shift into a lower energy lifestyle. Doing this will let you save money and simultaneously reduce your dependency on oil related products. Because virtually every product in the world is in some way shape or form affected by oil, reducing our consumption will invariably lead to more protection against the looming oil crisis.
Those that will be affected most are those that will not, or cannot, adopt to the new environment of limited oil supplies. Consider reducing your consumption not only for a greener lifestyle, bigger savings, but self preservation. I wish it were not true, but many people will be driven to where they will have to struggle to survive. Preparing today for peak oil will put you in a much better position for when the effects of peak oil begin to hit you.
- The Party's Over - Richard Heinberg: Book Review
- Fuel of War: Article Review
- Shell CEO Virtually Admits to Peak Oil
- Energyville Part I: How Will you Power it?
- Energyville Part II: The Discussion
- The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
- James Howard Kunstler
- Resource Wars - Michael Klare
- The Party's Over: Oil, War And The Fate Of Industrial Societies
- Richard Heinberg
Review - PowerDown - Richard Heinberg
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