Showing posts with label Corporation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corporation. Show all posts

Monday, March 3, 2008

The Pardox of Choice: Why More Is Less - Barry Schwartz - Book Review

Western Civilization has been flooded with so many choices in every aspect of our lives. Whether it is cleaning supplies, college course curriculum, or even finding something as simple as a pair of jeans. We have typically associated choice with an increase of freedom and the ability to steer our life in the direction that we so choose.

However, paradoxically we have become a victim to the plethora of choices out there and it is affecting us psychologically. The extra choices do not liberate us, but instead cause us to agonize over decisions and regret any "bad" purchases that were made.

Barry Schwartz's "The Paradox of Choice" is an excellent book that looks into the choices we make, the psychology of making choices, why we suffer from the choices we make, and lastly, what we can do about choice to live better lives.

Maximizers vs. Satisficers
Barry Schwartz identifies two different types of purchases: Maximizers and Satisficers. The key difference is that maximizers will strive to make the "best" purchase possible, while the satisficers are content with a purchase that is "good enough", which is to say that it meets their basic requirements. Typically maximizers are less satisfied with their purchases and also have more regret. It is okay to be a maximizer when shopping for products that are really important for you. It is only dangerous when you attempt to maximize every aspect of your life.

The Psychology of Choice
Barry Schwartz has a PhD in psychology and gives many psychology examples on how people will make decisions to buy products and their perception of gains and losses. Below, I have outlined a few of the key areas which he mentions that affect our decision to choose. The main purpose of these different factors is that the subjective value can be much different than the objective value. Typically the studies compare things that are equal in objective value, $20 for example, but then see how the different factors change the subjective value.

Accounts
Suppose that you have not yet paid for a concert ticket ($20) but lost a $20 bill the day before the concert. Would you still pay to the concert? What if, instead, you bought a concert ticket for $20, lost it, and had to pay another $20 for the concert ticket?

Although these two scenarios are identical objectively, subjectively they are much different because we tend to filter money different accounts. In the first case, the $20 loss was filed into a "general" account. But for the second scenario, the lost cost was $20 and the "real" cost of the concert ticket would then be $40. In the study that Schwartz cites, over 90% of people would be willing to buy the concert ticket in the first case, yet only 50% would do it in the second case.

Anchors
The idea of an anchor is to create a high price item in the store, a "deluxe" or "luxury" model, and then offer a more standard one. For example, a $100 pair of jeans may seem like a lot, but when compared to $200 pair of jeans, it looks like a bargain. Although not many of the $200 jeans will be sold, they will "anchor" the $100 jean products which leads to higher sales.

Like I wrote in The Dangers of Shopping, it is important to make sure that the purchase is needed and affordable on an absolute scale, not comparing it to the cost of the "high end" or "retail price". Otherwise, we can always justify a purchase as long as it isn't the "most expensive" model out there.

I personally witnessed a shameless example of anchoring at the Guess Factory Outlet store in Vacaville, CA. I asked them if they carried any products from their regular Guess stores and they said "No, the products are made specifically for the Guess Factory Outlet." What really disturbed me was that EVERY price tag had a MSRP (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price) and the "discount" price printed on it. Despite the fact that it was made specifically for the outlet, they framed it by posting an artificially high number to make it seem like it was a "bargain".

Gains and Losses

I thought the psychology of loss and gain was the most interesting part of the book and it really sets up the framework for why we agonize over choices. Briefly summarized, we feel more pain for a $100 loss than we feel happiness for a $100 gain. When choosing between a set of choices, there is seldom an option that is superior in every criteria. By not picking the "losing" option, we are giving up a trade off and thus a loss.

The studies explored in the book show that the more choices there are, the more trade offs or "losses" must be taken when making a decision. Because the pain of loss is greater than the happiness in gains, when confronted with too many choices, the buyer/consumer will often not make any decisions. This is true even when it is clear that there is an advantage by picking ANY choice (for example, employers would not pick his/her portfolio of 401(k) funds when there were too many choices, even though they knew they got an employer match).

The Green Factor
Within recent years, environmentalism has become a hot issue in the media and in people's everyday lives. There is now the option to offset your carbon emissions related to electricity use, buy organic produce,

However, by adding these options, it has further multiplied the number of choices that consumers must deal with. What is more important?

  • Greenhouse Gases or aerosols?
  • Organic or local?
  • Water pollution or air pollution?
  • Lower energy uses in CF lightbulbs or no mercury in incandescent light bulbs?
All of these decisions are contributing to a phenomena known as "green fatigue". This is the idea that people are tired from making green and eco-friendly decisions. With so many different factors that can affect the environment, anyone trying to be green must factor these into their purchasing decisions.

Strategies for dealing with choice
In the last chapter of the book, Schwartz suggests multiple ways and details how we can cope with the the abundant choices and making decisions. I have listed his suggestions below.
  1. Choose When to Choose
  2. Be a Chooser, not a Picker
  3. Satisfice More and Maximize Less
  4. Think About the Opportunity Cost of Opportunity Cost
  5. Make Your Decisions Non-Reversible
  6. Practice and "Attitude of Gratitude"
  7. Regret Less
  8. Anticipate Adaptation
  9. Control Expectations
  10. Curtail Social Comparison
  11. Learn to Love Constraints
I plan to create a mini-series and at his suggestions in depth in future blogs. I will say though, that all of the advice seems very practical and is based on the scientific research that has been conducted which looks at the psychology of choice. By simply understand why we act the way we do, we can strongly reduce the negative affects that choice has on our lives.

My Thoughts
I think that this is a great book that has cleared up a lot of things in my life. I am one that is more of a maximizer rather than a satisficer. If I find out that I "could have" saved more money by doing X action, I tend to regret my purchase and am mad that I didn't make the best purchase possible. I will look to follow the steps that Schwartz has recommended, and that I outlined above. I need to be able to not regret my purchases and be happy when I have made a "good enough" purchase.

Although Schwartz suggests that you should worry less about your choices, I believe that it is still important to scrutinize your purchases, especially if it is above your hourly wage (see The Dangers of Shopping). However, it becomes dangerous when the cost of extra scrutiny goes beyond the cost of your time and mental health. The main thing is to "Choose when to choose". This of course will depend on your values and what you think needs to be the "best" and what you can be satisfied with "good enough".

You should only sweat the small stuff if the sweat that you put out is at least equal to the amount of sweat you might get back. An adage that would be appropriate here is "Penny wise, pound foolish". If you look at scrimping pennies on your small purchases, you might be overlooking the larger picture. The time you spend with your penny-pinching could be directed to something that will increase your well being or even make more money.

I really think that reading this book has the potential to make you much happier in life. You will look at life differently and your choices can bring true excitement and happiness. I plan to start a mini-series of blogs related on psychological issues of choice and discuss how just being aware of the psychology of choice can change your outlook and spending on life.

Recommended Books:
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less - Barry Schwartz
GoogleBook: Paradox of Choice (Sample)

Recommended Movies:
Barry Schwartz talk at Google

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Adding Values to Your Investment: FTSE 4Good Index

Value and Values?
Wouldn't it be great to add not only value, but VALUES to your investment? Socially responsible investing has been increasing in popularity but has not completely proven itself able to outperform passively managed index funds. However, in principal the idea is good because it will eliminate risk by screening companies on their social responsibility and in theory will reduce investment risks.

The FTSE 4Good Index (pronounced "footsie") is an index which screens companies for socially responsible practices. Like Calvert, Parnassus, and Domini, they have various criteria on defining what "socially responsible" and this will naturally determine which companies will be included in the index. FTSE 4Good is unique in that it creates "challenging yet achievable" standards. But FTSE don't stop there. They constantly increase their standards and any companies that do not meet the standards will be removed from the index.

Vanguard's Socially Responsible Option
Vanguard has a great option with their FTSE Social Index Fund Investor Shares (VFTSX). Briefly, the fund seeks to track the FTSE 4Good Index, is a no load index fund (no sales or redemption fees) and has a low 0.24% expense ratio (for more information see the Fund Snapshot and Fund Prospectus). As I detailed in my blog post Socially Responsible Investing: Can it be traditional funds?, I could not justify investing in the various socially responsible funds because of the high expense ratios and fees.

Luckily, Vanguard offers a more cost effective index fund compared to other available SRI funds. Previously, Vanguard had benchmarked the Calvert Social Fund but switched for a variety of reasons (See Social Fund's article). Vanguard's low cost SRI fund intrigued me and deserved further investigation as an investment option.

FTSE 4Good Overview
For an overview, take a look at the FTSE 4Good Index Brochure and the Inclusion Criteria Brochure. Below I've listed the types of companies that they exclude, and then the factors the fund uses to determine what remaining companies will be included in the fund.

Exclusions

  • Tobacco Producers
  • Companies manufacturing either whole, strategic parts, or platforms for nuclear weapons systems
  • Companies manufacturing whole weapons systems
  • Owners or operators of nuclear power stations
  • Companies involved in the extraction or processing of uranium
Screening factors
  • Working towards environmental sustainability (Climate Change)
  • Developing positive relationships with stakeholders
  • Up-holding and supporting universal human rights
  • Ensuring good supply chain labor standards
  • Countering bribery
Within each of the screening factors there is an myriad of criteria and divided by high/medium/low impact and even identifies specific sub-sectors/industries that have special criteria. For more specifics see FTSE 4Good's Criteria Documents.

What holdings does the index have?
After the exclusions and the rigorous screens and filters that the FTSE has performed there are a few funds that remain. Their holdings can be found here.

I was surprised to see Rio Tinto included. They are a mineral/mining company that has not had the best reputation in the past. Also, it interested me that no oil/petroleum companies are present. Given the circumstances of peak oil and how well these companies are performing, I feel like it is not wise to exclude these companies.

This is where socially responsible investing can get extremely difficult, because there are a set of criteria and if a company doesn't meet them, they are not included. Although I want to believe that there are rational people determining the criteria that these companies should have, it worries me that emotions might get in the way of investing. I personally would never bet against any energy companies, in particular petroleum because they are so integral to our society and will only make more once peak oil hits.

My Thoughts
This index is relatively new and there isn't much performance history. However, I have to say that they have an extensive and rigorous set of criteria to select socially responsible funds. I want to believe that these screens will provide the investor with a superior profile but I am reluctant to do so because it eliminates a significant amount of the market. Burton Malkiel's book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and the book "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" give very strong evidence that it is extremely difficult to beat the market. Many active fund managers choose to instead track the market with low cost index funds for their own portfolios.

I think that once I get a larger amount of assets, I will look towards adding socially responsible investing as a small portion of it. Before that though, my investments will go primarily into the Target 2040 Retirement Fund which automatically diversifies your investments and will change them to more conservative investments as you approach your retirement. Target Retirement funds represents a much broader market profile and does not involve as many risks as an index fund like the FTSE 4Good Index. The Target Retirement 2040 fund is comprised of other "staple" Vanguard index funds which are seen below:
  1. Total Stock Market - 72.0%
  2. Total Bond Market - 10.1%
  3. European Stock - 9.9
  4. Pacific Stock - 4.4%
  5. Emerging Markets - 3.6
This ratio of stock/bond/foreign is typical of an investor of my age. As I grow older the portfolio will shift towards a higher percentage of bonds for reduced risks. I see these retirement funds as a great way for beginning investors to get a broad mix of investments.

The second major part of my portfolio will involve California Long Term and Intermediate Term Tax Exempt funds. These funds have California Muni Bonds which are "triple tax free". This means they are not subject to Federal, State, or Local income taxes. For me that is extremely important because of my high federal and California state income tax brackets.

Once I have a substantial amount invested into the Target Retirement and Tax Exempt Muni funds, I will begin investing in the socially responsible funds. At the moment I plan to invest 10-15% of my portfolio into SRI funds. If there is strong evidence in the future that SRI funds can outperform traditional funds, I will consider investing more into SRI specific funds. However, until then, I will stick with a more traditional strategy with a 80/20 mix of stocks/bonds with some money in munis.


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Monday, February 11, 2008

Water Wars: Fighting over the Source of Life

Water as life

“Water is life's mater and matrix, mother and medium. There is no life without water.”
-Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
In industrialized nations, we often take life's most precious resource for granted. A human will die within a matter of 3-4 days without water. Yet we have electric pumps pressurize water which delivers it to our homes for a minuscule fraction of our income. Why is it then that so many people have simply ignored the issues with water? There are many issues that revolve around water that will impact not only our ability to have fresh water for drinking. For example: What will happen...
  • ... when the Ogallala aquifier in the Midwest is depleted and can no longer provide cheap and plentiful water for the water intensive crops?
  • ... to Southern California and Arizona, where communities exist only because of water subsidies from "neighboring" watersheds?
  • ... to cropland which is experiencing desertification?
These are all problems that might be faced by our society in the near future. Vandana Shiva author of Water Wars: Privatization, Pollution, and Profit, looks at the history of water and how we can attempt to to become sustainable once again.

History of Water
Major cities and states throughout history have been centered around fresh bodies of water. This is because water provides a function vital to life. In the past people have typically managed water resources on a community level. Water usage has limited human expansion based on available water in a given region. However, in recent years has humankind been able to extend itself outside of nature's bound by using fossil fuels to extract water in massive quantities.

The most recent and startling change to the way water is regarded is the privatization and industrialization of water. Water has been turned into a commodity where it should be treated as a resource for all to use. Global corporations have privatized many water systems and are making money off of poor third world citizens.

Shiva argues that this is completely unethical because water is necessary for life. Imagine if corporations were able to control access to oxygen and then ask people to pay money to be able to breath. Although it sounds extreme, this essentially what companies are doing with water. Water is a critical resource for survival and companies have turned it into a commodity for their own profit.

Although water for U.S. citizens is still cheap, it is not affordable for many third world country people where water has been privatized. In many cases the people drink Coca Cola instead of water because it is a cheaper. Every has the right to breathe and has the right to affordable, if not free, water.

Water Conflicts - Resource Wars
With the industrialization, commercialization, and privatization of water, many conflicts have been bred. The most difficult aspect about water it is not a static resource and flows through many cities and even through many countries. A body of water's origin may be in a distant country. If the country decided to dam and divert the water before it reaches a downstream country, the lower country may not have any water access at all.

The Aral Sea is one of the most drastic examples of how water usage can completely change the landscape and ecosystem. The picture below shows the Aral sea has lost more than 1/2 of it's area because the water was diverted for irrigation purposes.


As I outlined in my blog post about the game Fuel of War, water has been the source of conflicts, better known as water wars. Many conflicts have arisen in India and even the Israeli/Palestinian conflict can be partially or wholly attributed to water rights. Many times religions warfare is the facade to cover the true pretext of the conflict. Water wars are a subclass of the broader category known as resource wars (Read Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict by Michael Klare for more information on resource wars).

Water wars can be considered the most important resource war out there. Most of the focus in the world has been on oil prices and how our lives would change. Without oil our high energy lifestyle cease to exist. But without water, our life will cease to exist.

My Thoughts
Water wars often are forgotten when one looks at resources and other commodities. However, as I learned the hard way, (see blog post Am I ready for peak oil), access to water should not be taken for granted.

There are many ways in which individuals can make a difference. First, stop supporting beverage companies by buying their bottled water which can cost more per gallon than gasoline!
Assuming a 1L bottle costs $1.50, the equivalent cost is $5.69/gallon, $1.50 more than gasoline in most places. Also, take a look at Pablo's calculations of the environmental impact of Fiji Water. Not only will you reduce your environmental impact but your wallet will thank you.

Most of this water is simply the same as tap water and merely bottled. Many studies have shown that tap water is just as safe and in some cases bottled water has more bacteria colonies than regular tap water.

The second way of reducing your water usage is related to your diet. Most crops grown in the world are done so unsustainable with massive inputs of water and fossil fuels. These crops are then fed to animals to produce meat. It takes anywhere from 1500-2500 gallons of water to produce 1 lb of meat whereas a pound of potatoes, tomatoes, or wheat require less than 25 gallons of water per lb.

If each person in the United States reduced their consumption of beef by just 1 lb a year and substituted that with potatoes, the amount of water saved would be 735 billion gallons of water each year. These savings would be in addition to all the pollution that is prevented from animal waste and reduction of fossil fuel use for fertilizer.

There are many ways that you can reduce water consumption and the ones mentioned above are only a few. I hope that you will find a way to reduce your water consumption in whatever way that you can. Remember, water gives us life and we should not waste it.

About the Author
Vandana Shiva is a PhD physicist but later went to research science, technology, and environmental policy. She is most well known for her activism and writings in the fields related to agriculture, food production, biodiversity, and genetically modified organisms.
For more information about Vandana Shiva, see her article in Wikipedia.

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Thursday, February 7, 2008

Food Labels: Fat, vitamins and CO2 emissions?

Money on CNN recently posted an article titled "Britain Catches the Foodie Bug" on looking at how consumer labels have taken a drastic change for those living in the U.K. Products such as Walker Crisps (potato chips for Americans) now have labels that show the "g of CO2" used to produce the food. This and other food labeling practices are a growing trend of consumers demanding more information about the food they eat.

I see this as an amazing step towards bringing transparency into food, which has taken a back seat when compared to transportation environmental impact/emissions. Although emissions related to transportation has the largest impact with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. Food choices, in particular meat, are the second largest contribution according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. (See my review of Earth Save for more information on the environmental impact of food)

What is "g of CO2"
Besides the obvious that it is a greenhouse gas emission that is created during the process of making the end product, not much information is given. There are many questions that are left unanswered such as the following:

  • Did they perform a life cycle analysis of CO2 emissions?
    • What aspects did they include? (shipping, production, packaging, growing)
    • What raw materials did they include? (gasoline, fertilizers, lubricants, water)
No study on CO2 emissions is perfect, because they all must make assumptions and limit the scope of their study. Thus, we must be critical of these labels, especially if they are voluntary and not regulated or certified by an independent organization. However, the actions that have been taken represent a step in the right direction towards more transparency in the food chain.

My Thoughts
It is up to the consumer in a society to demand change and an increased transparency. Without full knowledge of what is being purchased, companies are able to internalize the costs when they do not have to disclose any negative information about their food.

I think that the citizens in the U.K. are standing up for their rights to know where their foods comes from and what it took to produce it. If companies are forced to disclose the environmental impact that their food is having, consumers would be able to make a more educated choice and would ideally choose more sustainable options. This would of course encourage (or perhaps even force) companies to either change their products to be more environmentally sustainable.

I hope that the readers in the U.S. will educate themselves on this issue and push for more transparency and higher standards in food labeling. I want to know if my food has been genetically modified, treated with radiation, or sprayed with poisonous and potentially deadly toxins and pesticides.

There are good and bad foods out there, and as the saying goes "You are what you eat". Treat your body and the environment with respect: be conscious about your eating habits and you can make a difference to the not only to the environment, but also your health.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Socially Responsible Investment: Can it beat traditional mutual funds?

Wouldn't it be great to make money and do good for the world? What if you could make more money by investing in socially responsible causes? I think without a doubt every person in the world would love the ability to make more money and feel good about it.

I recently read The SRI Advantage: Why Socially Responsible Investing Has Outperformed Financially by Peter Camejo which investigates evidence which claims to show the benefits from socially responsible investing.

The SRI Advantage - Mini Book Review
The hypothesis that Peter Camejo presents is that socially responsible mutual funds perform better than other mutual funds that have similar risk profiles and size (small/mid/large capitalization). The book challenges the notion that Socially Responsible Investment may "feel good" but only by sacrificing performance.

The fundamental idea is that if a person were to invest in socially responsible stocks then the performance is better. The screening is what any other active fund manager would be doing, but looking at social and environmental aspects to determine a "bad stock". The idea is by only investing in socially responsible companies, it will minimize risk. The case study that they often cite is the tobacco industry. In this case, the lawsuits related to health issues hurt their stock. Thus, if a fund were to screen out companies like this, it would have a better profile that is less susceptible to future losses.

Each fund has its own criteria for determining whether or not a company should be screened out. Some of these screens include the following:

  • Tobacco use
  • Alcohol
  • Military defense
  • Gambling
  • Animal testing
  • Environment
  • Human rights
  • Labor relationships
  • Community Investment
The book cites many studies that have been performed, and many show a correlation between socially screened funds outperforming other comparable mutual funds. There is not a strong consensus that the performance is greater because many index funds for socially responsible funds and indices have only been created within the last 20 years. Their performance has not been completely proven to outperform non-screened funds.

One aspect that the book did not address are the fees associated with the mutual funds. This topic is discussed in the next section and will explain their importance.

Why are expense ratios and mutual fund fees so important?
The old adage goes something like "nothing comes for free". The same is true is for mutual funds and there are costs associated. However, some funds come at a lower price than others. Before I start talking about specific mutual funds, I need to define a few key terms.
  • Expense Ratio: Cost to pay the fund manager and other operation expenses related to running the fund. This percentage is the amount of money you pay from your total principal EACH YEAR to support the fund. Typical expense ratios are over 1% and can reach even 2%. This means that each year you have to pay up to 2% of your portfolio each year to support the manager.
  • Sales Fee: The fee you have to pay the fund to purchase the mutual fund (% of initial investent). Typically between 0-5%. If the sales fee was 5% and you invested $10,000, only $500 would go to pay the fee and only $9500 of your money would be invested in the fund.
  • Redemption Fee: The fee you have to pay the fund to sell your fee (% of the redemption/sale price). Typically 0-2%. If the sales fee was 2% and you cashed out your fund for $10,000, you would have to pay $200 and would net $9800.
As you can see, these fees are not trivial by any means. If you are buying and selling "loaded" funds frequently (those which have sales or redemption fees), the fees can add up very quickly. Picking a mutual fund based on the fees can be as important, if not more important than having a socially-screened fund or past performance.

Social Index Funds:
To find out information about socially screened I looked at the Social Investment Forum for general information about the funds and Morningstar and the prospectuses for the various funds for information regarding the fees and expense ratios.

There were many different funds with varying expense ratios and fees. One fund that stood out was the Calvert Alternative Energy fund which had a sales fee of 4.75% and an expense ratio of 1.85! I chose a few SRI funds to represent some of the more economic choices, but as you will see that even these funds still cannot compare to the low costs of owning a Vanguard fund or similar no load, low expense ratio fund. Although the fees for the SRI funds are similar to typical actively managed mutual funds on the market, they cannot compete with very low expense ratios of Vanguard funds.

Analysis
Using the SEC Mutual Fund Cost Calculator, I compared some socially screened index funds and compared them to two Vanguard funds which have are "no load" and have much lower expense ratios compared to the SRI funds. Here are the assumptions I made for the calculations.
  • $10,000 initial investment
  • 8% annual rate of return (constant for all funds)
  • Investment is sold after 10 years
  • Fees as displayed in the table below
  • The redemption fees that are listed for funds are not applicable because the funds are held for over 30 days.
  • These stocks are not necessarily in the same class of funds but were chosen to illustrate the effect of fees and operating costs of a fund.

Calvert Social Index A Calvert Social Index C Domini Social Equity Fund Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund Investor
Sales Fee 4.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Expense Ratio 0.75% 1.75% 1.15% 0.15% 0.50%

Assuming a 8% constant rate of return on investment and an initial investment of $10,000, here are the results for investing some different funds. The "Final Value" represents how much the investment of $10,000 is worth in 10 years after paying the operating costs and fees. The "Effective Rate of Return" is the average annual rate of return over 10 years after the fees have been factored in.

Calvert Social Index A Calvert Social Index C Domini Social Equity Fund Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund Investor
Final Value $18,873 $17,723 $18,846 $21,268 $20,534
Effect Rate of Return 6.56% 6.10% 6.76% 7.84% 7.46%

Clearly, investing in a no load, low expense ratio fund has clear advantages when compared to one a "better-performing" socially responsible investment. I calculated what type of interest rates the Calvert Social Index A would need to be if it were held for 10 years to compete with the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. The Calvert Social Index A Fund would need to have a rate of return of 9.2% (before fees and taxes) to compete with a fund that got 8% in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index.

My Thoughts
Although I think it is a great idea to support "socially responsible" companies, however you may define "socially responsible", I think that the data is not conclusive yet to see if socially responsible investing is worth it in pure economic terms. They have cited some studies which have shown that SRI funds have outperformed non-socially screened funds. However, many of these studies are based on index funds that are very young.

Upon examination of the website "Social Investment Forums", it is clear that the majority of these funds DO NOT outperform their respective comparison indexes just like the majority (90%) of actively manged mutual funds. Until there is stronger evidence that socially responsible investing is more effective than traditional investment, I personally would not invest in them from an economic perspective.

Even if one assumes that they can perform as well or even better than a non-screened fund, there are still the fees, including the annual operating cost (expense ratio), the sales fee, and the redemption fees which all must be calculated into it. Unfortunately, because these funds are screened, it means that they are actively managed which invariably leads to higher fees, in particular the expensive ratio.

In short, why would you want to give your hard earned money to fund managers who cannot outperform the index or even other funds in a similar class. The advice I'm going to give isn't anything revolutionary, but I will say it again because many investors think they can beat the market by giving their money to a fund manager.

Invest your money in a no load, low expense ratio fund like those offered by Vanguard. Only invest in an socially responsible fund IF AND ONLY IF you can find one a no load, low expense ratio fund. Otherwise your too much of your money will be going to the fund manager. Even then, be sure to diversify your investment so that you don't have all of your eggs in one basket.

Disclaimer: This blog should not be considered professional financial advice. Please consult your CPA for more information about investing decisions.

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Monday, January 28, 2008

Energyville Part II: The Discussion

Energyville Discussion
When I played the game on January 20th, there were 504 posts. Some of the posters were very knowledgeable and proposed certain solutions that will help with energy supply. For example one user talked about using waste heat for combined cycles and co-generation. Another talked about reducing the amount that we use instead of striving for eternal growth. In my opinion, this is what will happen, whether it is voluntarily or forced due to energy decreases resulting from peak oil.
However, not all of the comments were intelligent and I would like to highlight a few.

Popular Science and God
The next quote is from one of the posts in the Will You Join Us Discussion Forum:

"There are so many innovative products cited in POPULAR SCIENCE every issue for the past two years...can't we tap into some of those now? It seems to me that God is providing many new resources to help us through such emergency times...they need to go into mass production while we are able to do so."
The first thing that concerns me is that he believes everything in Popular Science. My biggest problem with Popular Science is that they look at "emerging" technology that is often not commercially or even technically proven. It is definitely great material for a curious reader to think that these technologies are on the cusp of being realized, but in reality, most of these ideas are years down the road or won't ever be developed.

For example in this article, The Two Day Battery, from Popular Science, the author reports that scientists have discovered a way to make batteries last longer, going from 4 to 40 hours. Those who aren't skeptical probably think that it's just around the corner, but the author of the article makes the following concession his last sentence:
"Of course, this is still in the lab stage, and there are undoubtedly quite a few steps and hurdles between the campus and commercialization, but we're optimists."
I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but we do not have the time or the resources to be optimists. We can't hope for the next emerging technology to magically save us. We need to be REALISTS and understand the the current problems and the current (however incomplete they may be) solutions that exist and begin to implement them.

My second concern is relating to god. If we are relying on god to provide us with energy then I think we have a rocky road ahead. I think it is highly unrealistic to hope for divine intervention when the laws of thermodynamics and physics are at work.

What the !@#& are you thinking?
The user who commented above might have some issues with what the next person has to say about creating mechanical life to use it to provide energy. (Disclaimer:the quote below has NOT been modified in any manner from the original text)
"perhaps genetically modified biomechanical , half creature half mechanical,feeding it neutritous water could produce a sercetion to then power the mechanical part. Is this possible yet or do we not no about it yet?"
Spelling and grammar aside, there are significant problems with the ideas the person presents. Where would we get this "neutritous water"? Assuming there is an ample supply of "neutritious water", does the reader not understand that much of the caloric value of this water would be used in the biological process and less energy is available in the secretion than there was originally?

What I think, is that many people don't realize that energy just can't be extracted from anything. There are only certain sources of matter or energy in this world and universe that are useful and can be economically harnessed.

My Thoughts
I think that The Economist Group has focused on the wrong issue. They continue to work with the idea that we must continually provide more energy for mankind. However, thermodynamic laws and supply sets limits. I will admit that increased efficiencies and new technologies will provide some "free" energy that was previously not harvested due to inefficiencies.

But the overall picture is that we are already consuming more energy than is sustainable. As China and other developing countries continue to industrialize and copy the Western high-energy lifestyle, the pressure on energy supply and the environment will be even greater.

The reader who had a comment on Popular Science and God did have one nugget of wisdom: "
...they need to go into mass production while we are able to do so." We must begin to acting today while we still have cheaper fossil fuels. Once peak oil hits, we will not have the extra energy to spend on infrastructure.

What Can You Do?
The Energyville game and discussion forums offer a great starting platform for learning more about energy. The game does a pretty good job of discussing the pros/cons of each energy and what technical or economical limitations may exist.

As always, education is the key. Educate yourself and your friends about the issues. We can't start making changes in this world until we know what needs to be changed.

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Saturday, January 26, 2008

Shell Energy CEO Virtually Admits to Peak Oil

Two Paths: Which will we choose?
Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer released an article which outlines the future of energy. He proposes that there are two paths that we can take. He titles one "Scramble" which is similar to how nations react to resource scarcity as described by Resource Wars by Michael Klare. This is the scenario in which nations will go to war over the resources remaining in the world. (See how the video game "Fuel of War" depicts the "Scramble" scenario in this blog).

The second path he calls "Blueprints" which is similar to Richard Heinberg's scenario "Powerdown: The path of self-limitation, cooperation, and sharing" as described in his book PowerDown. This scenario is one in which the nations will have to cooperate and set policies to use the resources to the benefit of the most people and avoid resource wars.

van Der Veer states the following opinion on which path that Shell, America, and the world should take:

"Shell traditionally uses its scenarios to prepare for the future without expressing a preference for one over another. But, faced with the need to manage climate risk for our investors and our descendants, we believe the Blueprints outcomes provide the best balance between economy, energy, and environment."
I believe that pretty much everyone would agree that going to war over resources is not a path that we should embark (or continue) on, and that we should look towards a future filled with cooperation and sustainability.

Peak Oil
The most powerful part of van der Veer's article was the following paragraph which is practically an admission to the existence and tremendous importance of peak oil.
"Regardless of which route we choose, the world’s current predicament limits our room to maneuver. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to rising population and economic development. After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand." (Emphasis added)
These are extremely strong words for a CEO of a company that depends on selling these "easily accessible supplies of oil and gas". It would be similar to Starbucks saying "After 2015, cheap supplies of coffee probably will no longer keep up with demand". Simply stated, this is something that would not be said unless the company was truly concerned about the issue.

This marks the first time that anyone from a major energy company has openly admitted that peak oil will happen before 2020. Although there has been a strong, yet mostly underground movement for peak oil, the energy industry has been reluctant to admit that peak oil would even be a problem... until now.

My Thoughts
I am truly amazed that someone has finally stepped up to the plate and recognized the need for a drastic change. Jeroen van der Veer admits to "peak oil" without explicitly saying those words and recognizes the need for drastic change to ensure that we do not go down the path of Scramble, plunging ourselves into a never-ending resource war until there is only the "Last Man is Standing".

I must congratulate him for making such a bold statement to the public in light of what shareholders may think. However, as he stated, climate risk must be managed by balancing economy, energy, and environment. It is in the shareholder's and our descendant's best interest that we look at energy and greenhouse gas emissions and work to find a sustainable solution.

I can only hope that politicians and other leaders of corporations will follow Jeroen van der Veer's footsteps and confront reality. We cannot address the problem if we are not aware of . Once we have admitted that we have a problem, we can begin to work on fixing it.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Energyville: Part I - How will you power it?

Energyville Overview
Energyville is a game developed by The Economist Group for Chevron to look at providing energy to a city using various resources. A game that is based on something as intricate as the world energy supply will no doubt have some major assumptions. I've quoted parts of the disclaimer for the game below.

... Assumptions for the game, both present and future, are based on The Economist Intelligence Unit’s assessment of global facts and trends obtained from numerous credible sources... The game has limitations and many elements have been simplified to facilitate game play... Additionally, although you are able to determine how to power your city, the game does not take into account the time and investment needed to replace exiting energy infrastructure with your choices.
Even the best modelers in the world still have difficulties forecasting because there are so many different factors that will affect a global market. However, for the purpose of the game, these have been simplified and many assumptions have been made to make the game work.

This is your city. How will you power it?
The game lasts two rounds with the years between 2007-2015 and 2015-2030. Your city has various energy needs and you must supply enough energy using different sources. Each energy source has been evaluated on three impacts: economic, environment, and security. Simply put, the lower your impact of your city, the higher your score.

The economic and environment impacts are a given because they are typically discussed in the media. "How much will it cost compared to conventional fuel/energy" and "How much CO2 does it emit compared to conventional fuel/energy" are the typical questions that need to be addressed.

Also, I understand the importance of security related to being able to protect the infrastructure and having a reliable source. This is extremely important for the United States because much of our energy (oil/petroleum in particular) is imported and there is a risk associated with not being able to supply your own energy.

However there is one factor which is often forgotten, the "social" impact. At the Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro in 1992, leaders from around the world discuss sustainable development and determined that there were three factors that must be taken into account: economic, environment, and social. A diagram of how these three factors interact can be seen in the figure below.

Source: http://www.eoearth.org/image/Sustainable_development_triangle.gif

Unfortunately corporations are forced by their charter to focus on the economic. The only way that a corporation can focus on the others, is if they will make an impact on the bottom line. (See The Corporation for more information about what corporations are and how they work). Recently more attention has been focused on the environmental aspect and corporations are changing their practices to include some environmental impacts (again, only to increase the branding of their company and to improve their economic sustainability).

It is unfortunate that the social aspect has been left out, but nonetheless I have compiled all of the impact values for the game in the table below.


Petroleum is by far the worst (I wonder how much input Chevron had into this game) at a total of 22% and hydro power is better than all of the rest at 8% (if we can assume that all impacts can be weighted equally). I believe that most of the numbers are relatively accurate of the impact with the exception of the economic impact of nuclear. It is rated as the second cheapest option (tied with coal).

Although I don't have access to the data that they use to calculate the impacts, I assuming that the data is only looking at the operational costs of nuclear power and doesn't take into account the huge subsidies that the government has to provide to dispose the radioactive waste. If the true cost of nuclear power was known, I don't think it would rate as well as coal in terms of economic impact.

Powering Your City
In both rounds the user has to power up their city by selecting a portfolio of energy sources. To mix things up, two random events occur between each of the game rounds which will affect your city based on what energy sources you have chosen. For example, international conflicts will cause the economic and security impacts of petroleum/oil plants to increase, thus decreasing your score.

There are limitations to your energy sources and you cannot just build unlimited hydro plants. Also, one point that I thought the game represented very well was the types of energy that were needed. For most of the city, electricity is generated centrally and sent through the grid. However, there are sectors such as transportation that are reliant on petroleum/oil. If you build only energy sources that can only be used for stationary electricity generation you will get the following message:
Warning! Hungville requires petroleum. Though alternative fuels can reduce the need for petroleum, airplanes and significant portions of ground vehicles will continue to rely on petroleum for fuel.
I am glad that they did not gloss over this fact because oil accounts for approximately 96% of the energy needed for transportation with biofuels and natural gas providing most of the remaining 4% with approximately 2% each (Data from the Department of Energy: Annual Energy Review 2006).

How Did I Do?
Playing it 5-6 times I got consistently in the top 5-15% scores. Best score was 688,061,046 which was in the top 3.5%. It is merely about making the least amount of impact and you can do this by looking at the numbers that are given. I think a lot of the players didn't look at the impact of each energy source (about 6% of the energy chosen was hydrogen and oil shales, which based on the data the game gave you, is a terrible choice).

I suspect that the top scores are from people who heavily favor the technologies that present the lowest % gain, and they play it enough such that their technologies aren't affected negatively in the random events.

Rating the game
Overall the game play is pretty bland. All you need to do is pick hydro, wind, and some petroleum in the first round. The second round you pick some more wind/hydro/solar because it has become more efficient. Rinse and repeat and you'll be in the top 10% of the scores out there.

That said, the game offers a wealth of information about each of the different energy sources. Even if the information may be incomplete or is biased towards particular energy sources, the game at least brings the awareness of energy issues and serves as a starting platform for people to learn more.

However, it's not all just fun and games and at the end of the game it is possible for the player to then click on a link to go to the discussion forum. In my second blog about Energyville, I address some of the discussion which is occurring in the forum and offer some of my own thoughts and opinions about energy.

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Monday, January 7, 2008

Recommended Movies

Below are the recommended movies for each major category. I have personally seen every one and whole-heartedly recommend them. The list is sorted in order of importance (in my opinion).

Some of the more popular movies have become mainstream and can be found at Blockbuster or Netflix. Unfortunately, most of these movies don't have major labels and you might need to buy it from the producers directly. I've linked the movies to Amazon (if available) or to the producer's website.

If possible, hold screenings of the movies for your friends (Please check with the producer to see if this is allowed/legal). I personally think that movies are a great way to introduce friends into the topic because it only requires a 1-2 hour investment.

Corporation

Credit/Debt
Environmentalism
Media
Peak Oil

Recommended Books

Below are the recommended books for each major category. I have personally read every one and whole-heartedly recommend them. The list is sorted in order of importance (in my opinion).

Lastly, to decrease the environmental impact and to save money, please try to find "alternative" methods to get your resources. Check the book out from your local library if possible. If you have to buy it, try getting it from a local used book store. If you do end up purchasing a book, be a resource to your friends and lend it to them to spread the awareness.

Corporation

Credit/Debt
Environmentalism
Media
Peak Oil